GlobalEnergyPerspective2024September2024AboutthisreportTheGlobalEnergyPerspectiveisproducedbyEnergySolutions,partofMcKinsey’sGlobalEnergy&MaterialsPractice,inclosecollaborationwithMcKinsey’sSustainabilityandAdvancedIndustriespractices.McKinseyiscommittedtoourpositionthattheworldrequiresamajorcoursecorrectiontoreachclimategoalsalignedwiththeParisAgreement,andourresearchisfocusedonhelpingglobalstakeholdersmeetthosetargets.TheGlobalEnergyPerspective2024offersadetaileddemandoutlookfor68sectorsand78fuelsacrossa1.5°pathway,assetoutintheParisAgreement,aswellasthreebottom-upenergytransitionscenarios.Thescenarioshavebeenredesignedthisyeartobetterreflectchangingglobalconditions,includinggeopoliticalchallenges,increasinglycomplexsupplychains,andhigherinflation.Together,theyexplorepotentialoutcomes,rangingfromasustainabletransformation—aplausiblescenariowheresustainabilitybecomesaglobalpriorityandnationscoordinatetowarddecarbonization,despitethechallenges—throughacontinuationofthecurrentenergytransitionmomentum,toaslowerevolutioncharacterizedbyafragmentedresponsetodecarbonization.Dataforthesescenarioscomefromavarietyofsources,includingtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theEnergyInstitute,Eurostat,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),OxfordEconomics,theUnitedNations,theUSDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA),andtheUSEnergyInformationAdministration,amongothers.Thisbroadrangeofscenariosisintendedtoshowtheimplicationsofdifferentpathwaysandtoprovideafactbasetoinformdecisionmakers.However,thesescenariosarenotexhaustiveintherealmofallpossibleoutcomes,norwillanyindividualscenariounfoldexactlyaswedescribeit.Incertaincasesinthisreport,wemayhighlightaparticularscenariothatbestillustratesatrend,butthisdoesnotmeanthatwebelievethisscenarioismoreorlesslikelytoreflecttheactualoutcome.Theinsightsinthisreportarebasedoncurrentlyavailabledata,butmultiplefactorscouldinfluencereal-worldoutcomesastheenergytransitioncontinuestoadvance.AboutEnergySolutions:EnergySolutionsisMcKinsey’sglobalmarketintelligenceandanalyticsgroupfocusedontheenergysector.Thegroupenablesorganizationstomakewell-informedstrategic,tactical,andoperationaldecisionsbyusinganintegratedsuiteofmarketmodels,proprietaryindustrydata,leadingindustrybenchmarks,advancedanalyticaltools,andaglobalnetworkofindustryexperts.Itworkswithleadingcompaniesacrosstheentireenergyvaluechaintohelpthemmanagerisk,optimizetheirorganizations,andimproveperformance.AbouttheGlobalEnergy&MaterialsPractice:McKinsey’sGlobalEnergy&MaterialsPracticedeploysitsdeepinsights,functionalcapabilities,andproprietarybenchmarkanddatasolutionsacrosstheconvergingenergy,materials,andnaturalresourcessupplychainstohelpcreatesubstantialandlong-lastingvalueforstakeholders.Guidedbyadvancedanalyticsandthepowerofaglobalteam,itbringsdistinctiveindustryperspectivesacrosssectorsthatsupporttoday’scriticalinfrastructureecosystems.Thepracticeisproudtohavepartneredwithhundredsofmajorindustryplayersastheleadingandmostintegratedadvisoronstrategicandfunctionaltransformations,enablingclientstoacceleratedecarbonizationandrealizetheenergy,materials,andfoodtransitions.AboutMcKinsey&Company:McKinseyisaglobalmanagementconsultingfirmcommittedtohelpingorganizationsacceleratesustainableandinclusivegrowth.Thefirmworkswithclientsacrosstheprivate,public,andsocialsectorstosolvecomplexproblemsandcreateposi...
