中国人口未来消费行为及其碳排放含义研究-中国人民大学免费下载

! 中国人口未来消费行为及其碳排放含义研究 Research on the future consumption behavior of Chinese population and its carbon emission implications 中国人民大学 2023 年 3 月 Renmin University of China April, 2022 !"#$%!""#"$%&'()*+),-./"012"34567()89:;<=./"!>?"$%&'()@ABCD"EFG"$%&'()@ABCD"!HH"$%&'()@ABCD"!IJ"$%&'()@ABCD"0KL"$%&'()@ABCD"%MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM%%&'()%"- !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345678'912:;<=>-./?:;<=>9@AB()*CDEFG-HIJ'9KLM6NOB()PQ-RSTUVL? W- XYEZ[\]^_`Eabc'd97efghij:;<=>klmnop'nqrsYE-tuvw\]^_`Eab?W Disclaimer - Unless otherwise specified, the views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Energy Foundation China. Energy Foundation China does not guarantee the accuracy of the information and data included in this report and will not be responsible for any liabilities resulted from or related to using this report by any third party. - The mention of specific companies, products and services does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by Energy Foundation China in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. "!!#!中国人口特征正在发生重大变化，人口总量首次迎来负增长，城镇人口比重、老龄人口占比、中等收入群体持续增加，但贫富差距依然很大。未来中国人口总量将呈下降趋势，城镇化进程继续深入，90%以上农村人口流向大型、中型和小型城市，老龄化趋势逐步加深，65 岁以上人口数量占比 2060 年达到 22.6%，收入结构向着共同富裕的目标迈进，2050 年中等收入人数达到 9 亿。 不同人口特征产生的消费行为不同。城镇化进程将提升人均居住面积和公共建筑面积、家电保有量和交通出行水平，并会影响冬季取暖方式选择。由于不同年龄人群的消费需求差异，人口老龄化将产生消费需求降低和消费结构调整，取暖需求增长而制冷需求降低，对电梯等配套设施以及智能门锁、烟雾报警器、温度传感器等智能家居需求增加，交通部门的能源需求下降，医疗需求增长。收入增长和共同富裕...