海南省低碳转型中长期展望——基于 EPS 模型探索“双碳”路径2025 年 10 月报告摘要关于绿色创新发展研究院(iGDP)绿色创新发展研究院(Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress,简称“研究院”,缩写(iGDP)是专注绿色低碳发展的战略咨询平台,于 2014 年成立于北京,旨在成为具领先专业素养和独立影响力的国际化智库。成立以来,根植我国地方绿色低碳实践,面向全球应对气候变化进程,为决策者、投资者和社区提供具有国际视野和前瞻思考的解决方案和公益性知识产品。报告编写团队绿色创新发展研究院(iGDP):宋曼娇、杨鹂、李鑫迪、袁雅婷海南大学:吴丹、张明、徐扬致 谢非常感谢能源创新公司对本研究提供的技术支持。免责声明本报告编写及建模所需要数据和信息均基于公开、可得的数据源,报告内容是对所研究领域的初步探索,旨在加强相关领域的讨论交流,如有不足之处,敬请谅解并指正。报告中主要结论及观点仅代表作者迄今为止的认识,不反映作者所属机构以及研究支持方的立场。引用建议宋曼娇 , 吴丹 , 杨鹂 , 李鑫迪 , 袁雅婷 , 张明 , 徐扬 .(2025). 海南低碳转型中长期展望——基于 EPS 模型探索“双碳”路径 . 北京:绿色创新发展研究院 .联系方式绿色创新发展研究院(iGDP):igdpoffice@igdp.cn 目 录研究背景与目标······································································ 1海南省低碳转型进程·································································· 2低碳转型现状 ············································································ 2低碳转型目标 ············································································ 3模型工具和情景分析·································································· 5海南省“双碳”路径 ················································...