EnergyTransitionMonitor 2026The transition is a speed and delivery challenge, not a technology challenge•The energy transition is moving faster than ever. Clean technologies are now scaling because they increasingly make economic sense over fossil alternatives. Solar, batteries and electric vehicles continue to outperform expectations and are beginning to reshape energy systems globally -removing barriers (tariffs, grid, business models) can extend this further still. •Paradox of progress: current trajectories put the world on track for a ~2.5oC of warming which would have severe impacts on human lives. Emissions appear to be plateauing, but the world remains significantly off-track towards climate goals; climate damage costs are already at ~1% of global GDP and sectors such as industry and transportation are making progress but still heavily depend on fossil fuels. •Early investments in heavy industry are moving forward but the pace must increase. The foundations for decarbonisation are largely in place – driven by European-led carbon pricing that is increasingly mirrored by key geographies such as China and India. Multinational schemes in aviation and shipping can provide similar foundations. Project investments are strongest in China. Accelerating the pipeline will require additional policy support, via carbon pricing and additional de-risking, to reach delivery. •The challenge is shifting from technology deployment to system transformation. In many regions, most new infrastructure is already predominately clean, so challenge shifts to phasing out legacy assets – especially coal generation in Asia. •China continues to deploy as much renewable energy as the rest of the world combined – India’s rate of deployment is 1/10th of this. •Chinese clean technology leadership doesn’t risk the same trade dependencies as fossil fuels and can present an opportunity to accelerate global transitions. •Federal action in the US stops the transition accelerating but doesn’t stop it entirely. •The EU continues to build on strong foundations of ambitious and cross-cutting climate policy – but must remove barriers to deployment and defend policy from political pressures. •Multilateralism in geopolitics will play a crucial role. The transition increasingly depends on public support, international supply chains, carbon markets and clean technology trade. The Strait of Hormuz crisis highlighted choices between clean energy and fossil fuels. China's leadership accelerates clean deployment globally but also raises key questions outside its borders around industrial strategy, resilience and dependence.2Executive SummaryContents1.The paradox of progress• What is progressing: renewables, batteries, vehicles• Where do current efforts leave us: off target on emissions• What needs to accelerate: priorities per sector and the big misses2.Regional progress3.Impact of geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz closureWhat is progressing: renewables, batteries, vehiclesKey messages | Renewables, batteries, EVs are scaling, but we remain off-track towards global renewable, efficiency and electrification targets•There is clear evidence of global energy transition progress, but sectors that progress at pace are limited to where favourable economics are already within reach. •Clean electricity is growing far faster than overall energy demand, but by starting at a lower proportion, there is still opportunity to accelerate. In 2025, electricity demand grew by 3%, mostly by powered by clean sources, while energy supply grew ~1%. Despite impressive growth rates, clean electricity only met ~40% of the overall new energy demand. •Solar, batteries and electric vehicles continue to outperform deployment expectations. •Passenger EVs are expected to meet +25% of new car sales in 2026, with growth markets sales outperforming some developed economies.•Annual solar installations have again far exceeded previous forecasts while module costs falling at 20% per year since 2010. •Battery prices continue to decline, while battery densities are also improving, allowing new applications such as electric trucking to take off in key markets (e.g., China).•Progress towards COP28 goals of tripling renewable capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency is encouraging but not yet on track. •Global renewable capacity has almost doubled since 2022 and current trajectories approach 10 TW by 2030, yet this remains around 900 GW short of the 11 TW required to meet the global tripling target.•Energy productivity improvements (measuring the amount of energy required to generate a unit of GDP) have recovered to a rate of around 3% per year after several years of weak progress, but this remains short of the 4% annual improvement required to deliver the commitment to double the global rate of energy efficiency improvement.5What is progressing: renewables, batteries, vehiclesClean electricity growth rate was 2.3x faster than overall energy supply in 2025; but still met just ~40%...
