CHINESEELECTRICVEHICLES:DRAGORDRIVERFORGLOBALMARKETS?Factualdiscussion&recommendationsbasedonaglobalconsumersurvey2024ALEXANDERKRUGPartner,AutomotivePracticeMunichDR.ANDREASSCHLOSSERPartner,AutomotivePracticeMunichRICHARDPARKINPartner,AutomotivePracticeParisDR.PHILIPPSEIDELPrincipal,AutomotivePracticeMunichNICOLABORGOManager,AutomotivePracticeFrankfurtCONTENTFOREWORD3EXECUTIVESUMMARY&KEYFINDINGS41.CHINA’SPASSENGERVEHICLEINDUSTRY82.HOWGLOBALCARBUYERSLOOKATCHINESEOEMs14CONCLUSION262ChinahasbeenagrowthdriverforWesternOEMsforthelasttwodecades,asithastakenadvantageofitsmarketsizeandunboundeddesireforWesterncarsthroughjointventures(JVs)withlocalproducers.However,thefirstsignsofaninflectionarenowvisible.AgovernmentprograminitiatedadecadeagotopromoteChina’sdomesticautomotiveindustryandelectrificationledtotheemergenceofnewelectricvehicle(EV)brandsandincreaseddomesticmanufacturers’desiretocreatetheirownbrandsandproductportfolios.Asaresult,Chinabecamethelargestglobalcarexporterin2023.WebelievetheinternationalizationofChineseOEMswillsoonaccelerate.Thedriversarebothpoliticalandeconomic,includingvariousregions’electrificationgoalsandthelevelingoffoftheChineseeconomy,forcingdomesticOEMstofocusonexportactivities.FactorssuchastheglobalambitionsofChineseOEMs—particularlyintheEVmarket(bothbattery-poweredandhybrids)—andtheircompetitivenesscomparedtotraditionalincumbentsplayasignificantrole.ThequestioniswhetherthisisanopportunityforglobalEVtechnologiesandmarketsorjustathreatforEuropean/USincumbentmanufacturers—ashasbeenpositedbymanyinthepublicarena.ArthurD.Little(ADL)believesglobalautomotiveplayersmustanalyzeanddiscussthemarketapproachofChinesebrands,globalcustomerperspectivesonChineseEVs,andtheprofileofcustomerswhowillbethefirsttopurchaseChineseEVstosupportafact-basedandobjectivediscussion.Thiswillenablestakeholdersintheglobalautomotiveindustrytomakebetterstrategicdecisionsintheinteresting,yetchallenging,EVmarket,wherenolessthantheindustry’sfutureisatstake.ThisReportprovidesanoverviewofthekeyresultsofanADLstudyinvolvingmorethan15,000respondentsacross25countries,sheddinglightonhowChineseOEMsareexpandingtheirEVsinternationally.FOREWORDARTHURD.LITTLE3EXECUTIVESUMMARY&KEYFINDINGSThisReportaddressestwocrucialgapsforexecutivesintheautomotiveindustry:(1)itprovidescomprehensiveanalysisofthepositioningstrategiesofChineseOEMs,and(2)itdescribestheresultsofafirst-of-its-kindsurveymeasuringglobalcustomerperspectivesonChineseEVs.TheChinesepassengervehiclemarkethasbeenthelargestglobalmarketintermsofsalessince2009andhascontinuedtogrowwithaCAGRof7%,reaching26millionvehiclessoldin2023.ThemarkethasbeenamajorsourceofglobalEVdemand,withEVsaccountingfor35%ofpassengervehiclesalesin2023.Startingin2025,salesofEV,battery-electric,andhybridvehiclesareexpectedtosurpassthoseofinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesinChina.PassengervehicleproductionwillbedrivenbyEVsinthecomingyears,projectedtogrowat14%annuallyandcomprise69%ofChineseproductionby2030.Thisproductiongrowthhasfueledexportactivities,whichincreasedfrom1.5millionpassengervehiclesin2021to4millionin2023,makingChinathelargestexporterofpassengervehicles.Whatarethereasonsforthisrobustsupplygrowth?Inthepast,Chineseproductionprimarilycateredtodomesticdemand.However,aseriesofpoliciesstartinginthemid-2010sledtosignificantgovernmentsupportfortheEVindustry.Thisresu...
