Renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaTECHNICAL DOCUMENT 2Agora Energy China—Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaPublication detailsTechnical document Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaAuthor affiliation Agora Energy China 502E, German Centre, No. 19 Dongfang East Road Chaoyang District, Beijing, China www.agora-energy.comProject lead Wenbo Zhao wenbo.zhao@agora-energy.comAuthors Wenbo Zhao (Agora Energy China) Philip Horster (formerly Agora Energy China) Emir Çolak (Agora Industry) Wei Meng (Agora Energy China)Acknowledgments We would like to thank Leandro Janke, Matthias Deutsch, Maia Haru Hall, Darlene D'Mello, Julia Metz, Frank Peter, Alexandra Steinhardt, Anja Werner, Isadora Wang and Yiran Jin for their helpful comments and support.→ Please cite as follows: Agora Energy China and Agora Industry (2026): Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in China 3Agora Energy China—Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaTable of ContentsA Emissions reduction methodology 6B Cost methodologies and input values 7B.1 Electricity 7B.1.1 LCOE calculation methodology 8B.1.2 Input values 8B.2 Hydrogen 10B.2.1 Levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) calculation methodology 10B.2.2 Input values 10B.3 Ammonia and methanol 11B.3.1 Data collection 12B.3.2 Real case and concept case data 13B.4 Methanol 15B.4.1 Data collection 15B.4.2 Real case data 16B.5 Methodological differences between PyPSA Optimisation and PTX-BOA 17B.6 Price overviews of grey ammonia and methanol 18C Regional project data – further details 19D A summary of policies 21Bibliography 26 4Agora Energy China—Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaList of TablesTable B-1 Comparison of the methodologies for the LCOE, LCOH, LCOA and LCOM 7Table B-2 Techno-economic parameters for the renewable energy sources 9Table B-3 Techno-economic parameters for the electrolysis 11Table B-4 Techno-economic data for Haber-Bosch plants 12Table B-5 Technical and financial data for selected off-grid green ammonia projects in China 13Table B-6 Production inputs and costs for the concept ammonia synthesis plant in Sichuan 14Table B-7 Techno-economic data for methanol synthesis plants 15Table B-8 Technical and financial data for the off-grid green methanol project in China 16Table B-9 Production inputs and costs for methanol synthesis plant 17Table B-10 Overview of methodologies 18Table B-11 Ammonia spot market prices between 2022 and 2024 18Table B-12 Methanol spot and contract prices in China, November 2023 to September 2024 19Table C-1 Comparison of green ammonia and methanol capacity announcement with grey ammonia and methanol production in 2021 20Table D-1 A summary of policies about Chinese national and province-level (Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Ningxia), EU and German renewable hydrogen policies 22Table D-2 IPCEI-funded projects in Germany 26 5Agora Energy China—Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaThis technical document provides further details on both the methodology for the emissions reduction calculations and the methodology and input values for estimating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), hydrogen (LCOH), ammonia (LCOA) and methanol (LCOM). It also includes further regional data on hydrogen projects and coal production as well as a summary of policies.The cost estimates, project data and policy review in this document are based primarily on the situation as of 2024. Policy status and revisions reflect official documents available at the time of writing and may be subject to subsequent updates. 6Agora Energy China—Technical document: renewable hydrogen for chemical sector decarbonisation in ChinaA Emissions reduction methodologyIn order to quantify the CO₂ emission reductions achieved by using renewable hydrogen instead of fossil-based hydrogen in the production of chemical products, this study breaks down the process steps in which hydrogen is used as a raw material and calculates the hydrogen consumption at each stage in detail. Different traditional hydrogen production methods and their corresponding CO₂ emissions are also considered.The calculation of emission reductions is based on a scenario analysis approach that integrates publicly available industry statistics, reported process data and assumptions from literature and other industry sources. This provides a consistent analytical framework for evaluating renewable hydrogen substitution across various chemical products.Calculation Steps1. Chemical product data collection: obtaining data on the production volumes of major chemical products and their hydrogen consumption.2. Process flow analysis: identifying hydrogen consumption for each step within the actual production process where hydrogen is used as a feedstock.3. Source identifi...
