Thefutureofautomotivemobilityto2035Whatmightmobilityproviders’rolebeintomorrow’svaluechain?Thefutureofautomotivemobilityto2035|Whatmightmobilityproviders’rolebeintomorrow’svaluechain?031.Introduction042.Thelongandwindingroadahead083.Theevolutionofautomotivemobility104.ExpectedshiftsintheUnitedStatesandEurope145.Futureprofit-poolsimulationbasedonproxymobilityprovider366.Newoperatingmodelcapabilityrequirements437.Keytakeaways488.Conclusion51Contacts52ContributorsandAcknowledgments53Endnotes5404Forautomotivemobilityproviders,thebusinesslandscapecouldalreadyfeellikeitisrapidlyshifting.Buckleup—thingsmaybeabouttogetmoreuncertain.Infact,ourresearchsuggeststhatrevolutionarythinkingwillbeneededtohelpensurefuturesuccess.1.IntroductionThefutureofautomotivemobilityto2035|Whatmightmobilityproviders’rolebeintomorrow’svaluechain?05AsFigure1demonstrates,despiteseismicshiftsonthenearhorizon,thesizeoftheautomotivemobilitymarketintheUSand“EUROPE5”regionisprojectedtonearlydoubleby2035.Changeiscoming,whethermobilitypro-vidersarereadyornotandthereisanenormousopportunityforwell-positionedplayers.Infact,whattheydonextcoulddeterminetheirsuccessorfailureformanyyearstocome.Inaworldwithrapidlychangingconsumerpreferences,wideninginequality,risingpolarization,pressingclimatechange,declin-ingtrust,andanevolvinggeopoliticalorder,theautomotiveindustry’sfocushaslargelycenteredontechnology,whichhasdriventheconversationabouttheevolvingmobilityecosystem.1Butasthefuturecomesintofocus,withsomeinnovationsbecomingreality2andothersseeminglyevenfurtheraway,3mobilityprovidersshouldconsiderfocusingonvalue.4Indeed,theautomobilityvaluechainisincreasinglyimportantforproviders—fromcaptiveandnon-captiveleasingcompaniesiiitorentalcompaniesandfleetmanagementcompanies—theindustryisconstantlyadjustingtodisruption—whichcouldbecomeevenmorepronouncedinthefuture.Fig.1–Automotivemobilitymarketsizebetween2022and2035Source:DeloitteGlobalAutomotiveMobilityMarketSimulationTool.iTheEUROPE5regioniscomprisedofFrance,Germany,Italy,Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom.iiReflectsexchangerateasofJanuary27,2023(USD1=EUR0.92).iiiForsimplicity’ssake,werefertothesebothas“captives”inthispaper.0100200300Inbillion€2022203573.2140.80100200300Inbillion$20222035140.8281.0+5%%Compoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)+5%EUROPE5US“TheoverallsizeoftheautomotivemobilitymarketintheEUROPE5icountriesandtheUnitedStatesisprojectedtoincreaseto€141billion($153billion)iiand$281billion(€258billion),respectively,by2035,withacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of5%from2022.”DeloitteGlobalAutomotiveMobilityMarketSimulationTool06UnderlyingperspectivesontheplayerlandscapeIncumbentsCaptivesThisgrouprepresentsthefinancialarmsoforiginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs),thecorebusinessofwhichishistoricallycenteredonassetanddealerfinancingaswellasusage-andvehicle-relatedservices.Forthisreport,wealsousethisterminsomeinstancestobroadlyrefertoothertypesoffinancialinstitution,suchasbanksandotherlenders.FleetmanagementcompaniesThesecompaniesfocusonmanaginglargevehiclegroupsforcustomers,includingfinancing/leasing,usage-andvehicle-relatedservices,andre-marketingofvehiclesattheend-of-lifecycles.Forthisreport,wealsodefinethistermtobroadlyrefertoothertypesoffleetmanagerslikeleasingcompanies.RentalcompaniesThisgroupmaintainsastrongfootprintinclassicrentalproductsbuthasexpandedintoadjacentbusi...
