StandardbeatssizeinEurope’soffshorewindREPORTTimelyandaffordablerolloutcontingentonturbinestandardizationOffshorewind(OW)isakeypillarofEurope’senergytransition.Itiscrucialtoreachingclimatetargets,achievingenergyindependence,andcreatingearningcapacityintheregion’sfutureeconomy.Europe’sambitiousOWrolloutrequiresathree-foldincreaseinsupplychaincapacity.Butaperfectstormofinflation,interesthikesandsupplychainbottleneckshasescalatedcostsby40%since2022.Achievingtherollouttargetsinatimely,affordablewayisaherculeantaskfortheEuropeanOWindustry,onethatnecessitatesthedevelopmentofarobustandfullyindustrializedsupplychain.Today,theOWsupplychainisorganizedaroundaraceforsize:whocandevelopthetallest,biggest,highest-capacityturbines.Inthepast,largerturbinescontributedsignificantlytocostreductions.Butthecost-benefitsofevenlargerturbinesarediminishing.Infact,today’sracetoproduceever-largerturbinesisnowcausingcosttoincrease,andhamperingcapacityrollout,duetoever-shorterproductlifecyclesanduncertaintyaboutfutureturbinesizes.This“ratrace”isfueledbyaviciouscycleinthesector:1.Governmentsaretryingtoreducecost,insomecountriesthroughcompetitiveauctions,whichonlyleadstolocal,short-termcostpressureonthesupplychain,nottoonger-term,structuralcostreduction2.Projectdevelopersarekeentobethefirsttousethenewest,largestturbinemodelstowintenderbidsandmaintaintheirprofitability3.TurbineOEMsexpectlargermarketshareand/orhighermarginsfromvaluepricingforever-largerturbines,andareshorteningproductlifecyclestoaccelerateintroductions,butthisisleadingtoperformanceissues4.Componentandfoundationmanufacturers,installersandportsneedreliableforecastsoffuturequantitiesandspecificationstoinvestinR&D,capacityextensionsandindustrialization,buttheuncertaintiesaremakingsuchinvestmentstooriskyGovernmentsmustenforceastandardturbinesizeforaconsiderableperiodtoallowthesupplychaintobreakoutofthiscycle.Astandardsizenowwillcreatecertaintyforinvest-mentsandindustrialization,andsupportthecapacityboostweneed.Forthelongerterm,astandardizationroadmapwillpavethewaytowardsevenlargerand/orsmarterturbines.OnlywithastandardturbinesizewilltheEuropeanOWindustrybecometrulyfuture-proof.ManagementsummaryCover:1063893770/iStock2RolandBerger|StandardbeatssizeinEurope’soffshorewindContents12345678KeypillaroftheenergytransitionHerculeantaskaheadRobustsupplychaintokeepcostsincheckRatracetoever-largerturbinesDiminishingreturnsonlargerturbinesSettingastandardsizeStandardizationroadmapActionnowFastfacts447810131621Page120GWAmbitionoftheNorthSeacountriesintheOstendeDeclaration:120GWoffshorewindcapacityin2030330mTipheightofa15MWoffshorewindturbineabovetheseafloor5,600(15MW)turbinestobeinstalleduntil20303RolandBerger|StandardbeatssizeinEurope’soffshorewind3RolandBerger|StandardbeatssizeinEurope’soffshorewindKeypillaroftheenergytransitionEurope’senergytransitionhasamajorstakeinthesuccessful,large-scalerolloutofoffshorewind(OW).NotonlyisitcrucialtomeetingEurope’sclimatetargets,butitisalsoapillaroftheregion’sfutureenergyindependenceandearningcapacity.Specifically,Europe’stargetstoreducegreenhousegasemissionsby90%by2040andreachnetzeroby2050willheavilydependonOW.TheNetherlands,forexample,aimstosupply~46%1ofthecountry’stotalenergydemandwithOWby2050,andistargeting72GWincapacityinordertodoso.Ongoinggeopoliticalconcerns,suchastheRussianFederation'swaragai...
