ClimateActionTrackerDecarbonisinglight-dutyvehicleroadtransportParis-alignedbenchmarksforthetransportsectorClimateActionTrackerOctober2024ClimateActionTracker|Decarbonisinglight-dutyvehicleroadtransportiSummaryThebroadstrokesofaParisAgreement-alignedroadmapareclear:weneedtoroughlyhalveemissionsby2030,achievenetzeroCO2emissionsby2050andnetzerogreenhousegasemissionssoonafter.However,thedetailsatthenationalandsectorallevelareoftenstillunclear.Transportdemandandassociatedemissionscontinuetogrowaroundtheworld.Themasselectrificationoflight-dutypassengervehicleswillplayamajorroleincuttingroadtransportemissions,whichrepresent72%oftotaltransportsectoremissions.DevelopedcountriesandChinaarethelargestglobalemittersofGHGemissionsandgiventheirwealthandadvancedEVindustries,willneedtodomostoftheheavyliftingintheglobalEVmarketandstocktransition.Whilepositivesignscanbeseeninsomecountries,greatereffortwillbeneededtoaccelerateEVmarketandfleetpenetration.Ifcurrentuptakeratescontinue,EVsalescouldwellbeontracktoreach90%by2030(Boehmetal.,2023),butcontinuedandadditionalpolicysupportwillbeneededtoensurethatthisgrowthcontinuesandtargetsarereached.However,nationalgovernmentswillneedtoraisetheir2030EVtargetstobe1.5°Ccompatible.Internalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesarestillbeingsold,posingagrowingproblemforthefutureasstrandedassetsthatwillneedtoberemovedfromtheroads.Inthisreport,theClimateActionTracker(CAT)providesupdated1.5ºCcompatiblebenchmarksforthetransportsector,buildingontheCAT’sprevious2020benchmarkreport(ClimateActionTracker,2020a),fortheworldasawholeandforsevenindividualcountries;theUS,EU,China,India,Brazil,SouthAfricaandIndonesia.OurnewbenchmarksshowhowtheshareofEVsales,andEVstocksneedstoevolveoutto2050,andwhatthismeansforemissionreductionsinthelight-dutyvehiclesector.Wealsoprovideabenchmarkontheshareoflowandzeroemissionfuelsinthewholedomestictransportsector.Thiswillbecrucialforunderstandingthescaleandpaceoftransitionneededbycountriestotransitiontheirfuelsystems,andhighlightstheneedtophaseoutfossilfuelsinthetransportsector.TheCATfindsthat,toalignwith1.5ºC,theworldshouldreach100%EVsalesby2035Globally,electricvehiclesshouldachieve75-95%ofthelight-dutyvehiclemarketby2030and97-100%by2035.DevelopedcountriesandChinashouldtakethelead,phasingoutthesaleofinternalcombustionvehiclesasearlyas2030.Whilethepaceofactioncouldbeslowerindevelopingcountriesthaninwealthiernations,developingcountriesshouldstillaimtoachieve100%EVsalesshareby2040atthelatest.Transportsector1.5°CcompatiblebenchmarksEmissionsreductionsShareofEVsalesBRAZILCHINAEUROPEANUNIONINDIAINDONESIASOUTHAFRICAUNITEDSTATESShareofEVsalesShareofLowcarbonfuelsClimateActionTracker|Decarbonisinglight-dutyvehicleroadtransportiiEvenifcountriesweretoachieve100%EVsalesassoonaspossible,itwillnotbeenoughtomakethenecessaryemissionsreductionswithoutalsotakingaggressivemeasurestoscraporretireexistingfossilfuelcars—ortakethemofftheroads.Insomecountries,theannualretirementrateofICEvehicleswouldneedtoroughlyincreasebyafactorofsevenin2040comparedtohistoricalretirementrates.Worryingly,in2023,halfofnewcarsaleswerelargeresourceandemissionintensiveSUVs.IntheUS,resourcedemandforEVswouldbehigherthaninothercountriesduetothepopularityoflargeSUVs.InEurope,passengercarsarebecomingbiggerandheavier,cateringtonewconsumerpreferences.ThiswillprovechallengingtomeettheirEVd...
