GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025WHITEPAPERMARCH2025Images:GettyImagesDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2025WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.ContentsForeword3Executivesummary51Cautiousoptimism72Sustainabilityrisks102.1Technologychallenges112.2Policyandgeopoliticalchallenges192.3Sustainabilitychallenges253Non-sustainabilityrisksandtrends263.1Policyandgeopoliticalrisks273.2Economicrisks283.3Socialissues313.4Technologyrisks32Conclusion34Appendix:Methodology35Contributors36Acknowledgements36Endnotes37GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20252Thisyearmarksanimportantmomentfortheaviationsector’sjourneytonetzero.UpdatednationalactionplansonhowcountriesintendtodecarbonizeaviationneedtobesubmittedtotheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)bythenextgeneralassemblyinSeptember.Aspartofthosedecarbonizationplans,thefirstfewsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)mandatesinEuropecameintoforceinJanuary–withincreasinglytoughtargetsupto2030.Overthecomingmonths,moreSAFplantswilllooktomaketheirfinalinvestmentdecisionandpotentiallyprogresstoconstruction.Expectationsforeconomy-widedecisionsatCOP30inOctoberarealsohigh,withtheaviationandcleanfuelsagendaplayinganincreasinglyprominentroleinmultilateralevents,includingtheG7andG20.Theactionsthatindustryandgovernmentsacrosstheworldtakethisyearwillbevitaltoensuretheaviationsectorremainsontherightflightpathtomeetinternationallyagreedtargets,withnocountriesorregionsleftbehindinthequestforsustainability.TheglobalvisionagreedthroughICAOmeansthat,withinfiveyears,thecarbonintensityofjetfuelwillhavetoreduceby5%.Lookingahead25years,ICAO’slong-term“aspirationalgoal”isnet-zerointernationalaviationby2050.However,thesectorisalsopoisedtogrowsignificantlybythatdate.Aviationexecutivesareincreasinglyfacingtrade-offsbetweensustainabilityandgrowth,andboththeseareaffectedbytheconstantlyevolvinggeopoliticalcontext,withincreasedconflicts,loomingtradebarriersandrecentelectionsacrosstheglobeaffectingairtraffic,policy,investmentandfeedstockflows.Theseeventsareimpactingthedynamicsbetweencountriesandtheopportunitiesforcollaborationatatimewhensuchcooperationiscriticalforthelow-carbontransition.Inthisimportantyearforaviationsustainability,theWorldEconomicForumaimstofostertheinternationalactionandcollaborationneededbetweengovernments,aviationstakeholdersandthewidervaluechaintoaccelerateindustry’stransitiontonet-zeroaviationandensuresustainabilityremainsparamountinthesector’squestforgrowth.Theaviationindustryhasdemonstrateditsabilitytotransformandadapt,byovercomingsomeofthechallengesthathaveaffectedthesectorinrecentyears,fromsafetyissuestosupplychainconstraintsandlong-COVIDimpacts.Howcanthisspiritofresiliencebefunnelledtowardsfuellinggreatersustainabilityandhowcanmomentumforsustainableaviationbemaintainedasthesectorexpands?Whichprioritiesandactionscanbetakenforward?Whichrisksshouldpublic-priv...
