+1.5°C+0°C+2°C+3°C+4°CPolicies&action2030targetsonlyPledges&targetsOptimisticscenario+2.7°C+2.2°C+3.4°C+2.6°C+2.1°C+1.9°C+2.1°C+3.2°C+1.7°C+2.7°C+1.5°C+2.4°CClimateActionTrackerWarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdateClimateActionTrackerNovember2024Astheclimatecrisisworsens,thewarmingoutlookstagnatesClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November2024iDespiteanescalatingclimatecrisismarkedbyunprecedentedwildfires,storms,floods,anddroughts,ourannualglobaltemperatureupdateshowsglobalwarmingprojectionsfor2100havenotimprovedsince2021,withtheaggregateeffectofcurrentpoliciessettingtheworldonapathtoward2.7°Cofwarming.Thisthree-yearstandstillunderscoresacriticaldisconnectbetweentherealityofclimatechangeandtheurgencythatgovernmentsaregivingtothepoliciesneededtoreducethegreenhousegasesemissionsdrivingglobalwarmingatarateofcloseto0.3°Cperdecade.Mixedsignalsfromthepoliticalspacearecancellingeachotheroutandclearlyhinderingprogressinclimateaction.Onthepositiveside,renewableenergyandelectricvehicledeploymentreportedrecord-breakingprogress:energyinvestmentsincleanenergyarenowdoublethoseforfossilfuels,particularlyoilandgas,forthefirsttime,whileinvestmentincleanmanufacturingcapacityisgrowingrapidly.Onthenegativeside,fossilfuelsubsidiesremainatanall-timehighandfundingforfossilfuel-pro-longingprojectsquadrupledbetween2021and2022.Unsurprisingly,thismeansthatouremissionprojectionsexpectanemissionspeakbytheendofthedecade,butlackthesteepdeclinenecessaryinthatperiodtoreachtheParisAgreementgoal.Althoughitseemslikewehavereachedastandstilloverthelastthreeyears,thetruthisthatthereisalotofactionhappening,butunfortunately,notallintherightdirection.Theexponentialgrowthofrenewableenergynowallowsafasterdeclineafter2030,despitetheincreasingemissionssofar.SummaryPolicies&actionRealworldactionbasedoncurrentpolicies2030targetsonlyBasedon2030NDCtargets*If2030NDCtargetsareweakerthanprojectedemissionslevelsunderpolicies&action,weuselevelsfrompolicy&actionOptimisticscenarioBestcasescenarioandassumesfullimplementationofallannouncedtargetsincludingnetzerotargets,LTSsandNDCs*Pledges&targetsBasedon2030NDCtargets*andsubmittedandbindinglong-termtargetsTemperaturescontinuetoriseafter2100††CATwarmingprojectionsGlobaltemperatureincreaseby2100November2024UpdatePRE-INDUSTRIALAVERAGE1.5°CPARISAGREEMENTGOAL+1.5°C+0°C+2°C+3°C+4°CWEAREHERE1.3°CWarmingin2023Policies&action2030targetsonlyPledges&targetsOptimisticscenario+2.7°C+2.2°C+3.4°C+2.6°C+2.1°C+1.9°C+2.1°C+3.2°C+1.7°C+2.7°C+1.5°C+2.4°CClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November2024iiIntermsoftheambitionofclimatetargets,2024hasbeenayearmarkedbyminimalprogress,withalmostnonewnationalclimatetargets(NDCs)ornetzeropledgeseventhoughgovernmentshaveagreedto(urgently)strengthentheir2030targetsandtoalignthemwiththe1.5°CgoaloftheParisAgreement.Asaresult,ourwarmingprojectionshaveactuallyincreasedslightlyunderboththe2030targetsandtheoptimisticscenarios,from2.5°Cto2.6°Candfrom1.8°Cto1.9°C,respectively.Whilethe‘optimisticscenario’hasgraduallybecomemorereliablewithhigherlevelsoftranspar-ency,muchuncertaintyremainsonhowgovernmentsdefinetheirlonger-termnetzerotargetsandhowtheywillimplementthem.Alsonotingthattheseglobaltemperatureestimateshavea50/50chanceoflimitingwarmingtotheindicatedtemperature.So,whiletheoptimisticscenario...
