1PoweringUptheGlobalSouthThecleantechpathtogrowthVikramSingh,KingsmillBondOctober20242ExecutiveSummaryGlobalSouthcountriesaredeployingcleantechrapidly,andwillcontinuetodosoastheirpathtogrowth.TheGlobalSouthneedsenergy.AcrossAfrica,LatinAmerica,SouthAsiaandSoutheastAsia,energydemandperpersonisonly32GJperyear,afifthoftheamountintheGlobalNorth,and41%ofpeopleliveincountrieswhereelectricitydemandperpersonisbelowtheglobalenergyminimumof1MWh/y.TheGlobalSouthlacksfossilfuels.With60%oftheglobalpopulation,theGlobalSouthhasonly20%offossilfuelproductionandreserves,andoilandgasproductionareindecline.Asaresult,itisalreadyanetimporteroffossilfuels,withIndiaforexamplespending5%ofGDPonover$150billionofimports.Butisrichinrenewables.TheGlobalSouthhas70%ofglobalrenewablepotential,and50%ofcleantechminerals.Theirrenewableresourceisnearly400timeslargerthantheircurrentfossilfuelproduction.ThreequartersoftheGlobalSouthisinthesweetspot.73%oftheGlobalSouth(byenergydemand)fallsunderfourcriteriathatencouragecleantechadoption:middleincomeorabove;lowenergydemandpercapita;fossilfuelimportingorself-sufficient;andvastrenewablepotential.Therevolutionhasbegun.In2024,87%ofGlobalSouthcapexonelectricitygenerationwillflowintocleanenergy,andtheIEAexpectsnewsolarandwindcapacitytoincreaseby60%to77GW.Solarandwindgenerationhasbeengrowingat23%peryearforthepast5years,supplies9%ofelectricitygeneration,andisonly5yearsbehindtheGlobalNorth.Electrificationisalreadyat75%ofGlobalNorthlevels,andgrowingfaster.LeadersareoutpacingtheGlobalNorth.OnefifthoftheGlobalSouth,fromBraziltoMorocco,fromBangladeshtoEgyptandVietnam,hasalreadyovertakentheGlobalNorthintermsoftheshareofsolarandwindinelectricitygeneration,ortheshareoffinalenergyfromelectricity.Capexparityopensthedoor.Thehalvingofsolarandbatterycostsin2023meansthattheup-frontcostofsolarhasfallentothesamelevelasfossilgeneration,andthepurchasecostofelectricvehiclesisfallingtobelowthatofpetrolvehicles.Thisencouragescleantechsolutionsoverfossilinspiteofthehighercostofcapital.Chinesesupplymakeschangeeasier.ChinahasalreadyannouncedenoughcleantechcapacitytosupplyallofthedemandoftheGlobalSouth,andsince2023hasinvestedover$100billionintocleantecharoundtheworld.Therevolutionwillcontinue.By2030theGlobalSouthislikelytoincreaseitselectricitygenerationfromsolarandwindbyoverfourtimes,toabove2,000TWhperyear.Thecheapestroutetogrowthinhistory.Therapidgrowthofrenewablesprovidesthefoundationforhigherlevelsofelectricitysupply,whichinturnwilldrivegrowth.By2040,totalelectricitysupplycouldbeupto40%higherthanbusinessasusual.Peakfossilfueldemand.Fossilfueldemandforelectricitywillpeakby2030intheGlobalSouth,andtheremainingareasofdemandgrowtharelimitedastheresultofongoingelectrificationandefficiency.TheGlobalSouthwillnotservetopropupdecliningfossilfueldemandelsewhere.Weneedtodomore.TwokeyareasoftheGlobalSoutharenotyetadoptingcleantech–lowincomecountries(6%ofenergydemand)andfossilfuelexporters(21%ofdemand).Butevenhereweseesignsofchange,forexampleinEthiopiaandColombia.Howtospeedupchange.Manysolutionsexisttospeedupchangeincludingdomesticpolicytoencouragetheadoptionofcleantechandattractinvestment,MDBreform,catalyticandconcessionalfinancedirectedespeciallytopoorandvulnerablecountries,andtechnologytransfer.AsCOP29approaches,nowisthetimeforNDCstoreflecttheneweconomicrealityofcleantech.3TherearetwovisionsoftheGlo...
