OIESCHINAPROGRAMME:AnupdateonChina’sEVRevolutionAndersHoveSeniorResearchFellow,OIES1February2024HTTPS://WWW.OXFORDENERGY.ORG/ANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024Backgroundandcontents•UpdatesonthelatestEVstatisticsfromvariousChineseorganizations:–EVsalesandmarketshare:Chinaandtheworld–EVsalesbyvehicleprice,type,size–EVbatteriesandthegrowthofLFPshare–EVemissions–EVcharging:numberofchargers,electricityconsumption–Chargingexperience•Additionalanalysisfromtheauthor’spriorresearch,•Summaryof2024researchquestions•Industryprojects40%marketsharein2024;CPCA11millionsalesin2024•LineargrowthinNEVsaleswouldyieldsalesof10.5million,a40%share•Compoundgrowthof33%wouldyieldsalesof12million,a42%shareChinaEVsalescontinuetogrowANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024ChinadomesticNewEnergyVehicle(NEV)sales,2017-2023,andmarketshare2%4%5%6%16%26%33%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002017201820192020202120222023NEVsalesNEVshareCAAM,basedondomesticsalesshareofallvehicles,authorcalculations•ChinaremainswellaheadofothermajorautomarketsinEVpenetrationChinaNEVmarketaheadofothermajorregionsANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024Note:Chinasharerepresentsallvehicles,othercountrieslight-dutypassengervehiclesonly2023NEVmarketshares0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%ChinaEUUKUSBEVandPHEVmarketsharebyregion,2023BEVPHEVSource:ACEA2024,HeyCar2024,CoxAutoInc2024,InsideEVs2024,andauthorcalculations6%9%13%17%21%26%32%38%44%50%56%62%68%73%79%84%87%90%6%9%12%15%18%22%26%30%35%40%45%51%57%63%68%73%76%80%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2023202820332038Source:AndersHove,OIES,2024•ThoughEVsalesgrowthhasslowed,themarketisstillrisingataround2mvehicles/year•Carryingthisrateforward,Chinawouldreach100%NEVmarketsharearound2027•Assumingvehicleslast15years,thisyieldsa50%NEVshareinthevehiclefleetby2032•Usinggovernmenttargetof45%salesin2027and65%in2030,EVstocklowerbyabout10ppPenetrationofoverallvehiclefleetrisingslowlyANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024NEVsasshareoftotalChinavehiclestockunderS-curveadoptionGovttargetcase:45%shareby2027,65%by2030Highcase:NEVsalesriseby2m/yearuntil100%share•Whilelicenseplaterestrictionsandlocalsubsidiesstillmatter,CPCApredictsmostgrowthoutsideleadingcitiesin2024•NEVsperformbetteroncustomersatisfactionmetrics;NIO,BMW,Mercedes,BYD,andTeslascoringwell,smallerandlower-endvehiclesscoringbelowfossilvehiclesSeveralfactorsotherthansubsidiesatworkANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024WuhanSuzhouZhengzhouChengduBeijingChongqingShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouShanghaiSource:CPCA/WAYS2023TopNEVcitiesinDec2022(greenindicateslicenseplatelimit)CustomersatisfactionresultsSource:ChinaAssociationofQuality,2023FossilvehicleNEVOverallBrandimageQuality/reliabilitySales/servicesatisfaction818081.981.38181.480.078•32%ofsalesarepricedatRMB150,000–200,000(roughlyUS$24,000–30,000)•Allcategoriesshowedstronggrowth,ledbymid-rangecategoriesMid-rangeNEVsshowedstrongestgrowthANDERSHOVE--OXFORDINSTITUTEFORENERGYSTUDIES–2024NEVsalesbypricecategory,2021to2023-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000202120222023NEVsalesbypricecategory(thousands)Under8k80-100k100-150k150-200k200-250k250-300k300-350k350-400k400-500kOver500kSource:OIES2024;datafromCAAM20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%202120222023NEVsalesbypricecategory(%)Un...
