EYE ON THE MARKET ANNUAL ENERGY PAPER | 13TH EDITION Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the longterm oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for critical minerals, the improving economics of energy storage and heat pumps, the transmission quagmire, energy from municipal waste, carbon sequestration, a whydrogen update, the Russia-China energy partnership, methane tracking and some futuristic energy ideas that you can just ignore, for now. By Michael Cembalest Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management EYE ON THE MARKET • MICHAEL CEMBALEST • J.P. MORGAN 13 t h annual energy paper March 28, 2023 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: ● NOT FDIC INSURED ● NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES ● SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence 2023 Eye on the Market energy paper As the renewable transition hits its teenage years, it’s time to take stock of what has been accomplished so far: • “Clean tech” is outpacing fossil fuel investment even before new US/European energy bills • Global wind+solar generation exceeded nuclear for the first time in 2021 • The IEA projects peak global fossil fuel demand this decade even under its slower transition case • Projected renewable capacity additions of...
