ELECTRICITY&GASAnationalforecastto2050ENERGYTRANSITIONOUTLOOKUK2025FOREWORDAsweenter2025,theenergyindustrystandsatapivotalmomentinitshistory.Despiteglobaleconomicheadwindsandgeopoliticaluncertainties,we'vewitnessedunprecedentedmomentumincleanenergydeploymentandDNVforecaststhattheworldwillhitpeakemissionsthisyear.TheUK'senergylandscapeistransformingrapidly,withrecord-breakingrenewableenergygenerationandfallingcostsofcleantechnologiessettingnewbenchmarksforwhatispossible.ThepastyearhasdemonstratedtheUK’spotentialonthistransitionjourney.We'veseenwindpowergenerationreachhistorichighs,batterystoragecapacityexpandsignificantlyandElectricVehicle(EV)adoptionshowingsignsofrecovery.However,theseachievements,whilesignificant,aremerelytheinitialstepstowardour2050net-zerogoal.TheambitiousnewtransitionpathwaymappedoutbytheUKgovernmentincludesthreecriticalmile-stonesthatwillshapeourjourneytowardsnetzero.ThisDNVreport—theUKEnergyTransitionOutlook2025—revealsamixedpictureofprogressandchallengesagainsteachofthesetargets:First,by2030,weexpecttoseeadramaticexpansionofcleanpowerinfrastructure,withinstalledrenewablecapacityforecasttodouble,reducingourrelianceongastolessthan12%,butfallingjustshortoftheCleanPower2030target.Second,weseeprogresstowardstheUK’snewNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDC)targetbyreducingtoday’semissionsbymorethanathirdby2035.Finally,ourforecastfor2050seestheUKsuccessfullydecouplingeconomicgrowthfromenergyconsumption,reducingUKenergydemandby25%andemissionsby82%comparedwith1990levels.ButclearlytheUKisnotreachingnetzero.Significantchallengesremaintobetackled,particu-larlyinelectrifyingourdemandinheatingandtransportsectors.Thetransformationofdomesticheatingsystemsrequirescoherentimplementationplansandassociatedincentivesforheatpumpadoptionandbuildingefficiencyimprovements.Intransport,whiletheEVfleetandinfrastructureisexpandingrapidly,replacementofthecurrentlargelypetrol/diesel-basedvehiclefleetwillbeagradual,slowprocess.TheUKmustalsoacceleratethedevel-opmentofsolutionsforheavytransportandaviation,includingsyntheticfuelsandhydrogentechnologies.Aswenavigatethistransformation,wemustkeepinmindthatchangeofthisscalehappensincremen-tally.EventhoughtheUKcontinuestotakelargebitesoutofitsrelianceonfossilfuels,weneedtorecognizethatoilandgaswillremaindominantinourenergymixuptotheearly2040s.Hence,weneedtoensurerobustplansareinplacetomanageourexistinggasinfrastructure,whileworkingsteadilyondecarbonizingpartsoftheenergysystemthroughCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)andhydrogeninfrastructure.Thebuild-outofCCSinfrastructureisfinallyoutofthestartingblockswiththefirstFinalInvestmentDecision(FID)fortheHynetprojectandweforecastthatCCScapacitywillbeclosetogovernmenttargetsby2035.Theroleofhydrogeninourenergyfutureremainsbothpromisinganduncertain.Whiledemandisgrowing,particularlyinindustrialclustersandtransport,expandingtoanationalhydrogeninfrastructurerequirescarefulplanningandsubstantialinvestment.Similarly,ourenergystoragecapabilitiesmustevolvetomatchtheincreasinglydecentralizednatureofourpowergeneration.Lookingahead,weseeenormousopportunitiesinthistransition.Thegreeneconomypromisesnewjobs,enhancedenergysecurity,andtechnologicalleadership.However,theseopportunitiescanonlyberealizedthroughcontinuedpolicysupport,strategicinvestment,andstrongcollaborationacrossallsectors.Thepathaheadischallenging...