DECEMBER2024ElectrifyingroadtransportwithlessminingAglobalandregionalbatterymaterialoutlookEYALLI,GEORGBIEKER,ARIJITSENACKNOWLEDGMENTSTheauthorsthankAdityaRamjiandAlissaKendallfromUniversityofCaliforniaDavis,AlinaRacufromTransport&Environment,Jean-PhilippeHerminefromInstitutMobilitésenTransition,JessicaDunnfromtheUnionofConcernedScientists,andTeoLombardofromtheInternationalEnergyAgency,aswellasourICCTcolleaguesAdityaMahalana,AmySmorodin,AshokDeo,AviralYadav,HusseinBasma,JacobTeter,JoshMiller,KshitijRampotra,PalakThakur,PeterSlowik,Pierre-LouisRagon,ShiyueMao,TianlinNiu,TomásF.Husted,andYidanChuforcontributingtotheanalysisand/orreviewingthisreport.InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation1500KStreetNW,Suite650Washington,DC20005communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT©2024InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(ID206)FundingforthisworkwasgenerouslyprovidedbytheClimateWorksFoundation.iICCTREPORT|ELECTRIFYINGROADTRANSPORTWITHLESSMINING:ABATTERYMATERIALOUTLOOKEXECUTIVESUMMARYWiththegoalofmitigatingglobalwarmingandreducingharmfulairpollution,governmentsaroundtheworldhaveadoptedpoliciestoincreasetheshareofbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).AligningtheglobalroadtransportationsectorwiththeParisAgreement’sgoaloflimitingglobalwarmingtobelow2°Ccanbeachievedbyimplementinga100%BEVsalesshareinmajorvehiclemarketsfornewlight-dutyvehiclesby2035andfornewheavy-dutyvehiclesby2040,withallothercountriescompletingthistransitioninthefollowing5to10years.Althoughtheglobalroadtransportsectorisnotyetalignedwiththistrajectory,manygovernmentshavesettargetsandarediscussingothermeasurestoincreasetheambitionofvehicleelectrificationbeyondalreadyadoptedpolicies.ThisaccelerationofthetransitiontoBEVsentailsarapidincreaseindemandforbatteriesandmaterialsupply.ThisstudyprojectsthedemandforBEVandPHEVbatteriesandbatterymaterialsgloballyandinfivefocusmarkets—China,theEuropeanUnion,India,Indonesia,andtheUnitedStates—resultingfrompoliciesandtargetsthathavealreadybeenadoptedorareunderdiscussion.Thisiscomparedwithannouncedbatterycellproductionandmineralsupplycapacities.Thestudycoversallsegmentsofroadtransport,includingsalesinthelight-duty,heavy-duty,andtwo-andthree-wheelervehiclesegmentsaswellasnon-vehiculardemand.Giventheuncertaintysurroundingthefuturedevelopmentofbatterytechnologies,thisstudyalsoevaluatessensitivityscenariosofahigher-than-baselinemarketshareoflithiumironphosphate(LFP)batteriesandalarge-scaleapplicationofsodium-ionbatteries.Finally,thisanalysisexploreshowtheestablishmentofanefficientbatteryrecyclingenvironment,areductionintheaveragebatterysizeofpassengerBEVs,andachangeinvehiclesalesthroughtransportdemandavoidanceandmodalshiftpoliciescouldreducethedemandinrawmaterialswhilemaintainingarateofvehicleelectrificationalignedwithannouncedpoliciesandtargets.Ouranalysissupportsthefollowingconclusions:Announcedbatteryproductionplantcapacitiessignificantlyexceedtheprojectedglobalroadtransportandnon-vehicularbatterycapacitydemand.AsdisplayedinFigureES1,boththetotalannouncedcellproductioncapacityglobally,andtheproportionofthiscapacitythatisconsideredhighlyprobable,exceedprojecteddemandatleastuntil2030.ThemajorityofcurrentandannouncedcellproductioncapacitiesareinChina,correspondingto84%oftheglobaltotalin2023and67%in2030.Chinaisthusexpectedtocontinuetobeanetexpo...
