碳中和对宏观经济的影响何晓贝马骏［摘要］本文初步探讨了碳中和对中国宏观经济的影响，发现：首先，低碳投资和由此带来的技术进步是脱碳转型过程中促进经济增长的主要因素；而棕色资产搁浅、成本上升和转型过程中的失业问题会给经济造成负面影响。其次，基于上述影响机制，碳中和政策对经济增长是推动还是拖累，受到一国产业结构、资源禀赋和进出口结构等因素的影响。最后，中国的经济结构特点决定了中国更有可能在脱碳转型中获得长期增长收益。［关键词］碳中和；经济增长；脱碳转型；气候政策［文章编号］1009 - 9190（2022）05 - 0003 - 05 ［JEL 分类号］E0；O1；Q5［文献标志码］AImpact of Carbon Neutrality on Macro EconomyHE Xiao-beiMA Jun［Abstract］This paper preliminarily discusses the impact of carbon-neutrality on China’s macro-economy, and finds that:first, low-carbon investment and the resulting technological progress are the main factors to promote economic growth inthe process of decarbonization transformation; the stranded brown assets, rising costs and unemployment in the process oftransformation will have a negative impact on the economy. Second, based on the above impact mechanism, whether thecarbon-neutrality policy promotes or hinders the economic growth is affected by a country’s industrial structure, resourceendowment, import and export structure and other factors. Finally, the characteristics of China’s economic structure deter－mine that China is more likely to obtain long-term growth benefits in decarbonization transformation.［Key words］carbon-neutrality; economic growth; decarbonization transformation; climate policy一、引言目前学界公认，气候变暖会对全球造成巨大的经济和财产损失。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）在 2017年发布的《世界经济展望》，全球温升幅度在 22 摄氏度的全球平均气温基础上每提高 1 摄氏度，会降低发展中国家人均年度 GDP 增长率 0.9-1.2 个百分点 ①。因此，制定应对气候变化的政策、实现脱碳转型（decarbonization）、最终实现碳中和是全球经济维...
