Currently, the factors influencing energy development are becoming increasingly complex.Technological innovation is driving a sustained global economic recovery, accelerating the growth of global energy demand. The drivers of oil demand are undergoing fundamental shifts, natural gas demand is exhibiting robust growth momentum, which demonstrates the remarkable resilience of fossil fuels.Although the overarching trend of clean and low-carbon energy transformation remains unchanged,major-power relations have shifted from cooperative competition to strategic rivalry. Energy has evolved from a cornerstone of cooperation to a key arena for contestation, rising the priority of ensuring energy security and casting significant uncertainty over the outlook for energy transition.Considering this, the 2025 edition of the report has reconfigured three scenarios to better characterize the impact of external factors on energy development.Foreword2ScenarioKey FeaturesChasmScenariol The widening divide in political and economic cooperation among major nations, coupled with the fragmentation of energy industry chains and supply chains, has heightened challenges to energy security.l China’s growing energy self-reliance leverages local resources to align energy security with the transition.BaselineScenariol Global geopolitical conflicts, technological rivalries and trade barriers have become the new normal, prompting nations to advance energy transitions while balancing security and transformation.l China is accelerating its economic and industrial transformation, advancing the establishment of a new energy system, and progressing its energy transition in accordance with its established pace.Cooperation Scenariol Global consensus on tackling climate change has...
